Project Stake – Day 2
Playable Balance: $45.41
Today, I continued at the $0.04 betting level, continuing with the exact same strategy outlined on Day 1. The goal is to maintain discipline to the strategy unless the site forces us to change. With that in mind, I completed six sets of approximately 500 games per set, winning all 6.
Strategy and Playthrough
Playing in sets of 500 games helps me to monitor the winrate of the chosen seed (will define this in a separate post) and adjust my play as necessary. Today’s results came in above “EV” as can be seen in the chart below. Which I guess is good, but in my experience what comes up must come down, so I do expect that EV to shift.
“Expected Value”
Expected value (EV) is a concept in probability and statistics that represents the average outcome of a random event if it were repeated many times. In other words, it’s the anticipated long-term average result based on all possible outcomes, each weighted by its probability.
Here’s a basic formula:
Expected Value (EV) = ∑(Probability of Outcome × Value of Outcome)
To break it down:
Probability of Outcome: The chance of a specific outcome happening.
Value of Outcome: The payoff or loss from that outcome.
Results Summary
Here’s a quick look at the day’s performance:
- Total Sets Played: 6
- Games per Set: ~500
- Win Rates per Set:
- Set 1: 41.7%
- Set 2: 44.4%
- Set 3: 38.2%
- Set 4: 40.5%
- Set 5: 38.4%
- Set 6: 43%
- Total Return Before Rakeback and Rewards: $18.02
Our algorithm is set with a win chance of 40%, so today’s results were above the expected EV, adding to the overall success of the session. These slightly higher win rates in multiple sets boosted our total return and show the potential for steady gains.
Snapshots of the First and Last Sets. As you can see the Net Gain in Set 1 is off by $.02. Stake conveniently misses bets sometimes….
All in all the train will not stop we are just making observations. On to Day 3.
