Project Stake – Day 4: A Frustrating “Fair” RNG
Playable Balance: $63.13
Day 4 started off with high hopes. We were on the brink of breaking the $100 profit mark for this challenge, which would have felt like a huge milestone. But the excitement quickly faded as Stake.US’s so-called “fair” RNG seemed to shift gears. What started as a promising day turned into one of sheer frustration. As can be seen from the chart below the strategy was steadily cruising until Set 10. Now a single set loss is expected, but we then proceeded to have just steady flow back down and mind you with our strategy each set should have roughly an 80% chance of victory.
The trend was unmistakable: very minimal wins or complete losses. I’ve noticed this trend with other winning strategies in the past as well, but that’s why we are on this journey, so everything can be documented and you can see how to navigate these challenges. As I have noticed with many online games, for example Magic the Gathering Arena, there is an internal rating system that adjusts your win rate to increase or decrease the likelihood of you winning, regardless of how you are playing. I could be completely off base, but I suspect there are a few different metrics that affect your win rate behind the scenes.
Potential Key Metrics that can affect Win rate:
- Significant Win Streak/Amount
- Significant Loss Streak/Amount
- Withdrawal
- Deposit
- Automated Play
- Especially Use of Instant Play (This is a death sentence to In-Play amount)
- Too Much Automated Game Play in Some internally defined timeframe
I played much longer in today’s session, because the playable balance was up to $99.21 at one point, and I really wanted to crack $100. Oh well, the site had other plans. By the end of the session, we managed to break even, thanks to rewards and rakeback. Still, it was a discouraging finish after nearly hitting that profit milestone.
Looking ahead, I’m about 95% confident that tomorrow might require a redeem (Withdraw) and reload (Deposit). You won’t want to miss Day 5, because I will dive into a little secret regarding Stake.US… Gold Coins have value. Whenever you deposit, you receive both Sweeps Coins and Gold Coins. So far we have only been playing with Sweeps Coins, but Gold Coins can be used to move up through the VIP ranking system. This is important because VIP impacts your awarded weekly, monthly, and special bonuses.
Results Summary
Here’s a quick look at the day’s performance:
- Total Sets Played: 30 (we were in a lot of work meetings… so a little more free time on our hands)
- Games per Set: ~500
- Total Return Before Rakeback and Rewards: -$3.58
In Set 10, I started play with a balance of $16.83. that was probably close enough to the $20 target that I should have vaulted the extra $6.83. Instead of losing $16, maybe I would have only lost $9. Also notice the win rate for that set dropped to 34% (the slider win rate is set to 40%). We will see more of this in coming days. Yes yes variance, but I have a couple of very interesting examples I will post later to showcase more than meets the eye.
Towards the end of the session, I was a bit fed up, so I wanted to change things up a bit and see if that made a difference. I switched to a 70% slider win chance strategy, which worked fine for the first 2 sets and then back to losing. After round 30, I just turned the game off before recording all my stats. Even though you know the system it can still be frustrating.
