Project Stake: Day 18 My Big Mistake and Low Risk VIP Strategy

So earlier today, I thought I finally cracked the code at Stake, then after finishing some work and revisiting numbers, not even close. I’m still working on it.. I was going to say, “The RNG is rigged, and Stake cleverly keeps the win rates closely line up with the Win Chance to fool us. They want us to focus on the “Provably Fair” system and validate the seed for each individual bet. They know that task is virtually impossible for thousands of bets, and will most likely prove nothing. What I did today was craft an experiment that should actually net a positive outcome in the long run assuming we are dealing with a completely random number generator.”

Instead I’m going to show you my failed experiment and the strategy I did discover enroute to becoming Platinum. Let’s get to it.

The System ( 2 Phases, 5 Levels, 99.068% Chance of Success)

• Phase 1 – Simple Dice Strategy:
  • Win Probability P(W) | Win Chance: 80%
  • Loss Probability P(L): 20%
  • Win Multiplier | Winning: 23.75%
  • Bet Size Increase on Wins: 20%
  • Stopping Conditions:
    • Stop when profit reaches (Net Gain): $2
    • Stop when loss reaches (Net Loss): $2
  • Starting Bet Size: $1
• Phase 2 – Climb the 5 Levels:
  • Once a Stop Loss is triggered we increase our betting level and change the following:
    • Starting Bet Size: *2
    • Net Gain Stop: *2
    • Net Loss Stop: *2
  • Once a Profit stop is triggered we move back to Level 1
  • Using a Starting Bet Size of $1 the 5 levels are:
    • Level 1 Bet Size: $1
    • Level 2 Bet Size: $2
    • Level 3 Bet Size: $4
    • Level 4 Bet Size: $8
    • Level 5 Bet Size: $16
• Expected Probabilities and Expected Profit/Loss:
  • Phase 1, Level 1: The likelihood of making a profit where you stop upon reaching a $2 profit or a $2 loss, is approximately 45.84%.
    • Expected Profit Total on Sequence Win = $2.39
    • Expected Loss Total on Sequence Loss = $2.67
    • Average # of bets per level = 20.4
    • The 45.84% Win Percentage is true at all levels
• • Phase 2, Failing 5 Levels in a row: The probability of losing 5 levels in a row is .032%. <— More on this later
    • Expected Total Loss after 5 Levels in Series: $82.77
    • Wait a loss of what?!?!!?! No worries, that will never happen.

Today’s Experiment

• Number of games played: 3522
• Fresh Deposit of $100 and $90 immediately into the vault. We playthrough and get our money out.
• In Play Balance: $10
• Level 1 Bet Size: .02 SC
• Estimated # of Levels played: 3522 / 20.4 = 172.65

• Key Results:
  • Number of wins: 2811
  • Number of losses: 697
  • Winrate: 80%
  • Profit: -6.86
  • Wagered Amount Total: $336.89
  • Number of level 5 losses: 7 (6 around 3000 Games / 150 Levels played)

Welp this strategy was a bust and here is the Math to explain why. So remember that .032% chance of failure, I made a mistake. I thought I was on to something, but realized that ChatGPT was running the calculations for each level using an 80% winrate instead of 45.84%. That is pretty significant. LESSON is to triple check everything. The robot means well, but results are only as good as the data being used to calculate them:

Probability of Losing 5 Consecutive Bets (Using the Bad Data)

If the probability of winning a single bet is

P(W)=80%

then the probability of losing a single bet is:

P(L)=1−P(W)= 20%

For 5 consecutive losses, the probability is:

P(5 losses in a row)= P(L)^5 = (0.2)^5 = 0.00032 = 0.032%.

Probability of Losing 5 Consecutive Bets (Using the Corrected Data)

If the probability of winning a single Level is

P(W)=45.84%

then the probability of losing a single Level is:

P(L)=1−P(W)= 54.16%

For 5 consecutive losses, the probability is:

P(5 losses in a row)= P(L)^5 = (0.5416)^5 = .0466 = 4.66%.

So that means out of ~150 Levels we could expect to encounter a streak of 5 losses 4.66% of the time or 6.99 times. Hmm that seems fairly in line with the Stake results for this trial. I’m not completely convinced, but I do want to be fair.

Key Takeaways From Today

1. Avoid Foot in Mouth. This can easily be avoided by checking all the data before saying anything.
2. Never bet your whole deposit on an experiment. In fact even on a “proven” system just don’t do it.

How to Make Platinum the Cheap Way

For those of you that want to make Platinum but have more time than money the formula is simple. You will need some money to deposit, but you are going to pull that money right back off. If you need a boost, reach out to me. Maybe you can run some experiments for me in exchange. Here is the system:

1. Build up your gold Coins
   • Buy Gold Coins for let’s say $50, that will get you 500K GC
   • You will need to playthrough $150SC to recoup your money
     • Vault $40
     • Play Dice on Stake Originals
       • Bet size of .02 SC
       • Win Chance: 40%
       • Auto Algo Similar to Posted Strategy
       • *Whatever strategy you use, don’t let it run continuously!
     • Once you hit $150SC redeem everything
   • Buy More Gold Coins and repeat until you’ve built up a good amount of GC
2. Once you have 10 Million GC run the same posted Dice Strategy
   • Bet Size 10K GC
   • Reset and Stop at Net Gain of 20K GC
   • I would still not recommend going full auto, but it’s Gold so worst case you have to build it up again.
3. Be Patient and Good Luck!!