Project Stake: How Stake’s “Randomness” is Rigged Against You
Day 22, Running Profit: $98.73
The balance has been pretty flat, but I was playing to maximize playthrough not profit and since I reached my goal of Platinum, I’ve been putting together experiments to validate the gameplay at Stake.US (Stake.Com could operate completely differently). Most of what I’ve captured and shared so far is anecdotal but what I’ve seen rely defies odds so I’ve decided to take on the challenge to gather evidence using the standard scientific process. I actually hope I’m wrong, because at the end of the day we all want a fair and equitable gaming platform.
Introduction
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been testing a betting system that, by all mathematical reasoning, should be a winning strategy. After running simulations and thousands of trials, the system performed within expectations—until I tested it on Stake Originals. That’s when things got… peculiar.
This post will pull back the curtain on Stake’s RNG, demonstrate how their auto-play feature may be setting you up to lose, and reveal why you should think twice before blindly trusting their games.
The Winning System
Dice from Stake Originals isn’t your average dice game—it’s a “weird” dice system with sides ranging from 0.01 to 100. While unconventional, this setup still allows for a structured strategy grounded in probability.
How Our System Works
- The Parameters for a Trial:
- The goal is to roll above 60 to win.
- Starting Bet Size: $.02
- If you win, increase the bet size by 30%.
- Profit Stop: $.16
- Loss Stop: $.80
- When a Stop has been triggered reset the Trial or advance to the next Trial Level
- The Five Levels:
- After losing a trial increase to the next Level
- Each Level advances the starting bet size, profit stop, and loss stop by 3X
- After winning a trial reset to Level 1
- After losing a trial increase to the next Level
- Why It Works:
- Win Probability: With a target of rolling above 60, the theoretical win chance per bet is 40%.
- Controlled Progression: Marginally increasing the bet size after a win amplifies profits while minimizing prolonged losses.
- Profit Stops: These ensure profits are locked in and prevent the system from chasing losses.
- Expected Results:
- We ran through countless simulations created with Python to calculate the Trial Win Rate after 10,000 trials. The Trial Win Rate is estimated at 76.85% and a Trial Loss rate of 23.15%.
- Using the Scenario and 5 Levels posted, after 10,000 trials:
- Average Bets Per Trial: 24.96
- Total Amount Spent after 10,000 Trials: $34,269.26
- Average Amount Spent per Trial: $3.43
- Total Profit after 10,000 trials: $4800
- Total Failures (5 Level cycles): 6
- The Odds of a Total failure is: 23.15%^5 = 23.15% * 23.15% * 23.15% * 23.15% *23.15% = .0665% or 1 in 1,505 Trials
Interested in a custom script to validate your own scenarios or review the ones used for this study? Feel free to reach out. (projectstake@crookedroom.com)
Simulations: Proof of Concept
To validate the system, I ran thousands of trials using truly random numbers. Here’s what happened:
- Simulated Random Data:
- Over thousands of trials, the trial win rate was consistently around 76.85%.
- The probability of a “catastrophic” loss (losing 5 consecutive trials) is vanishingly small—only 0.0665%, or about 1 in 1,505 trials.
- Key Takeaway: The system works because it is grounded in probability. With enough trials and a sufficiently large bankroll, the math favors the player.
Stake Trials: The Illusion of Randomness
When I applied this same system on Stake’s “Stake Originals” games, the results took a dramatic turn. Here’s how manual play and auto-play compared:
Manual Play Results
- Trials: 100 (1967 rolls)
- Trial Win Rate: 73% (close to the expected 76.85%)
- Individual Bet Win Rate: 39.86%
- Profit: $3.36
- Highest Level Reached: Level 3 (2x)
- Level 2 Frequency: 21
- Level 3 Frequency: 3
- Level 4 Frequency: 0
Semi-Auto Play Results
Advanced strategy can be programmed to automate a trial, you still need to manually advance the levels
- Trials: 100 (1969 rolls)
- Trial Win Rate: 69% (significantly below the expected 76.85%)
- Individual Bet Win Rate: 38.80%
- Loss: -$98.34
- Highest Level Reached: Level 5 failure
- Level 2 Frequency: 24
- Level 3 Frequency: 7
- Level 4 Frequency: 3
The Five-Level Loss Problem
The most shocking discovery came with Stake’s auto-play feature. Within the first 31 trials, the system experienced a five-level loss, an event so rare it should only happen:
- Expected (Simulated Data):
1 in 1,505 trials (0.0665% probability). - Observed (Stake Data):
1 in 31 trials (3.2% probability—a staggering 48x higher than expected).
What Does This Mean?
If Stake’s RNG were truly random, encountering such a loss so early would be extraordinarily unlikely, certainly it can happen, but unlikely. The other alarming notables are the frequency of reaching Level 3 and Level 4 within only 100 trials, especially when compared to the manual run.
The typical naysayer response will be that of variance. I don’t believe that the results I captured here are a coincidence, but I would love to have more data points. If anyone would like to join in please feel free to inquire about the exact system so that you can set it up correctly and share your findings.
Conclusions: The Deck Is Stacked
Here’s what the data tells us:
- The Betting System Works:
Simulated trials validates the Winning System. Manual play on Stake (albeit a few % points less) results also validates the Winning System seemingly as a strategy to producing consistent profits. - Stake’s RNG Is Skewed:
Auto-play results deviate significantly from expected outcomes, with higher loss rates and more frequent catastrophic losses. They are able to maintain within a few percentage points the per roll win rate, but they can manipulate the sequence of losses. This needs to be taken into consideration whenever planning strategies around the auto-play systems. - Auto-Play Is a Trap:
The dramatic difference between manual and auto-play suggests Stake’s RNG may be manipulated during auto-play to increase losses.
The Implications
If Stake’s RNG is not truly random, it undermines the trust players place in the platform. Gambling should be a game of chance, but if the odds are skewed against you, players are being unfairly disadvantaged.
What You Can Do
- Avoid using auto-play features on Stake.
- Use smaller bets and test outcomes carefully.
- Demand transparency from platforms claiming to use “provably fair” systems.
